Blame Clive Davis for the end of the blockbuster (also: Anderson is inane)

I'm honored to report I've now become the object of a full-on Bob Lefsetz rant. Lefsetz is a legendary figure in the music industry and is famous for his fire-breathing tirades, which have over two decades migrated from paper newsletters to email and now to a blog. He begins:

"Go to: The Long Tail

I’m sick of newbies, ignorant of the music business, prognosticating what is happening in it.  Taking facts and drawing conclusions that are inane.

The long tail says that there’s demand for everything, that people want a much wider swath of material than previously thought, and that via Internet distribution, it’s now available and will sell.  I AGREE with that.  But to say concomitantly that there’s less demand, less NEED for blockbusters, is just patently untrue.

The labels stopped making mainstream music."

Read on here. There's actually lots in it I agree with and Bob, even when he's playing the spittle-spraying codger, is always entertaining (to say nothing of his "intense brilliance", to quote his own self-penned about page).

Comments

[Tim Peter]

Actually, I think you and Bob have got this thing surrounded. You have a hammer, so you see a nail. Bob's got a screwdriver, so he sees a loose screw. Or has a couple.

First, Bob's point. The record labels have never made "mainstream music." Record labels have, much like VC's, spread their investments across a number of artists, making real profits from the hits, while hedging their investments by creating royalty schedules that put the screws to artists. If a record hit, it became "mainstream." Mainstream tastes then showed the labels where to invest going forward. Take a look at the Hot 100 over the last several decades to see what passed for mainstream at various points. It wasn't all great art, but clearly someone was buying it (and, yes, I'm aware the RIAA changed the certification numbers. So what?). Lefsetz's wrath about is misplaced. My dad hated the music I listened to when I was younger; perhaps Mr. Lefsetz is simply feeling his age.

While the current trend toward music Lefsetz hates may impact sales, the labels' idiotic handling of distribution also contributes, which is where the long tail comes in. The labels have always controlled distribution. Prior to the Internet and P2P, that is. However, they're tilting at windmills now. Investing in "better" music won't help if the distribution model is screwed up, because the customer can simply find a better deal elsewhere and still hear the music he or she craves.

If you consider that in the "good ol' days," consumers faced limited choices in the music available for purchase because the labels either
a. Didn't invest in producing a broader array of music, and/or
b. Didn't provide distribution for those that did (with notable exceptions such as Rounder).

Consumers purchased blockbusters because too few options existed to hear anything else. Now, as production and distribution costs have fallen, musicians have greater opportunities to get their music in front of listeners, while fans have greater opportunities to hear something they've never heard before. Three of my favorite songs from last year were by bands who didn't have a record label. Much as an independent party candidate can "steal" votes from major party candidates in an election, these independent releases stole a share of my wallet away from major label releases last year. That's the long tail bit.

Labels need to embrace investing both in production for a wider variety of artists to capture their share of the long tail and in a distribution model that makes sense to put that variety in front of its customers. Suing customers hasn't worked. It's time the record industry actually tried to please its customers for a change.

[Robert]

Tried to post this to Bob's site, couldn't go, so here it is...

I would agree that many people want mainstream music, for the simple fact that they either don't get into music in the same way others do or that they don't care to expel the energy to find good music. That's fine. They will buy what is popular as a way of staying in the loop. The record biz ability to adhere to those people is waning because of what? Is it the drop off of quality music? Now the record companies can't bundle ten bad songs in with a few good ones and sell it for $12.99 because of the proliferation of mediums that allow for buying one or two songs (which is all they buy because the artists themselves make albums based on two songs and 8 fills). This gets to the core of why mainstream music lovers aren't as profitable; they don't want a ton of music, they want the two songs everyone knows. The challenge for the music industry is to find avenues that either improve music quality in order to get more people involved in more music (highly improbable as creativity is derived from previous workings and the workings now are horrible; hopefully a few savants come into play) or get people to vary their tastes and try new music. Neither is going to happen. The music industry has a bevy of problems; besides pirating, the biggest thing is that people are no longer forced to pay for an album to get the songs they want.

Here is where the Long Tail comes into play. I love music and I have friends that love music. We spend far, far more on music than the average mainstream music listener (this is anecdotal, but still quite relevant) and none of us actually listen to mainstream music. By mainstream, I mean music is found solely through radio or based on popularity. Many of the bands I listen to are found through WOM, blogs, Amazon, or simply going to Cheapo and buying something new in a genre I trust. Chris Anderson's point makes sense to me because I see it happening every day. Many acquaintences of mine simply don't spend the same amount on music as they aren't interested in it and don't have a taste for it. Record companies, by serving those with that taste, would stand to gain very much. I'm not saying abandon hits or blockbusters, but that today if they addressed the subset of people with ecclectic and varied taste, they could improve their sales dramatically.

Am I wrong?

[Harry DeMott]

It is fascinating reading all of the different opinions on the subject. Seems to me that the record companies have failed massively and the radio companies have failed massively to adapt to the opportunities and challenges that the long tail presents. Sure people want great songs and bands they can relate to, but they want to consume them in a way that gels with their lifestyles. In the past, there were no choices: you either bought the complete album or you didn't. You either listened to the radio or you didn't - no other choices. With all the digital distribution out there, and the large number of devices that don't talk to each other - and the radio and record industries stuck in the past - it is little chock that there are issues. What the radio guys and the record guys need to do is figure out exactly what they do. If you are a record company - your job is not to distribute music, but to find and develop great musical acts - then promote them through all available distribution outlets. Radio operators should realize that they are in the business of audience aggregation - not necessarily the business of advertising sales. Guys like Pandora.com do a great job of providing listeners with a great service tailored specifically to the distribution channel it occupies (i.e. the Internet) Itunes - like it or hate it - does a great job of catering to its audience. The truth of the matter is that in this day and age - the consumer rules. All of these guys have to change their business models to cater to the individual consumer.

[zalary]

This is TypePad Tech Support. I apologize for the test comment. Please ignore the person behind the curtain.

[Chris Anderson]

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